Truckload Contract Rates Hit 52-Week High as Operational Costs Soar
The latest market data points to one thing: leverage is shifting toward carriers.
Contract rates hit a one-year high
According to FreightWaves’ SONAR data, contract truckload rates reached about $2.72 a mile before fuel, roughly 18% above last year. Analyst Julie Van de Kamp says carriers and shippers are renewing agreements at higher price points, a sign that shippers have stopped resisting increases.
Spot is climbing faster
The NTI spot index is up nearly 50% year over year. With spot outpacing contract, the gap between them is narrowing, which strengthens carriers’ hand as annual bids come due.
Capacity is tight but stable
Tender rejections are holding at 13.75%, within a narrow 13% to 14% band. Demand rose about 1.25% week over week, back to pre-Labor Day levels.
Regional storm effects
Tropical Storm Isaias is disrupting the Alabama Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle, pushing rejections and spot rates up in Mobile and Montgomery.
Read the article: Truckload Contract Rates Hit 52-Week High as Operational Costs Soar
Support Through Every Freight Market Shift
Rising fuel costs, tighter truck capacity, and shifting shipping demand can make transportation planning harder. FreightCenter helps businesses compare rates and carrier options, find services that fit their shipments, and make informed decisions as market conditions change.
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Transpacific Air Freight Capacity Adjusts to Surge in AI & High-Tech Shipments
Demand for AI and chip-related cargo is big enough that two Japanese logistics heavyweights are building a dedicated air route around it.
The new service
Nippon Express Holdings and Japan Airlines have launched a weekly freighter circuit linking Los Angeles with Narita, Taiwan, and Singapore. JAL flies it with a Boeing 747 freighter that can carry up to 100 tons. The first departure left LAX on Oct. 3, and flights are planned weekly through the end of 2026.
What it’s built to carry
The service targets bulky, heavy shipments such as server racks and data center equipment, along with other high-value goods driven by generative AI and digital infrastructure spending. Because cargo can be loaded and unloaded at every stop, shippers get flexibility in routing, including onward links to Latin America. The route also aims at intra-Asia traffic, where few carriers run large freighters.
The demand backdrop
Semiconductor sales rose 8% month over month in August to $159.7 billion, the 18th straight monthly gain, with strong growth in both the Americas and Asia Pacific. Earlier this year, AI and chip volumes helped lift global air cargo demand about 7% year over year, according to Xeneta. DHL Global Forwarding has also added a thrice-weekly Transpacific service between Bangkok and Cincinnati, with tech as a key driver.
Keep it in perspective
Xeneta estimates AI-related freight is still under 10% of total air cargo volume. So while it’s a fast-growing niche that’s reshaping capacity on specific lanes, it isn’t yet the whole market.
Bottom line
For shippers of heavy tech hardware, more dedicated freighter capacity on Transpacific and intra-Asia lanes is welcome news. Watch whether the service continues into 2027, since that will show whether the demand is durable.
Read the article: Transpacific Air Freight Capacity Adjusts to Surge in AI & High-Tech Shipments
Factory Order Backlogs Build to $1.61 Trillion as Freight Costs Surge
U.S. manufacturers are sitting on a growing pile of work they can’t ship fast enough, and rising input costs aren’t helping.
Backlogs hit a new high
Unfilled factory orders rose 0.6% in August to about $1.61 trillion, per Census Bureau data. That’s the 25th increase in 26 months, with transportation equipment making up roughly $1 trillion of the total. Shipments stalled after eight straight gains, while new orders edged up just 0.1%.
Costs are the real pressure point
The Institute for Supply Management’s September manufacturing index came in at 54.5, a ninth straight month of expansion. The standout number was the prices index, which jumped nearly 7 points to 77.9, with almost 59% of respondents paying more than before. Freight has now been on ISM’s list of rising costs for seven months, and diesel for two. No commodity was reported cheaper. The EIA’s benchmark diesel price, which most fuel surcharges track, set a record of $6.529 a gallon on Sept. 21.
ISM’s committee chair pointed to steel and aluminum increases, tariffs, and petroleum costs tied to the Middle East conflict as the main drivers.
Labor and materials constraints
One fabricated metals manufacturer said it has orders through year-end but is limited by a severe worker shortage and tightening steel supply, with more delays expected.
Canada trade tensions
August trade data predates Canada’s retaliatory tariffs of 15% to 50% on roughly C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods, announced Sept. 8. Imports from Canada had already jumped in August, widening the U.S. deficit with its neighbor to $7.1 billion.
Bottom line
Demand looks solid, but manufacturers are constrained by labor, materials, and rising freight and fuel costs. For shippers, that points to budget pressure ahead.
Read the article: Factory Order Backlogs Build to $1.61 Trillion as Freight Costs Surge
Trucking Capacity Squeezed as For-Hire Tractor Counts Decline
Normally, a year of high rejections lures new trucks into the market. This cycle, that hasn’t happened.
New trucks aren’t showing up
According to FreightWaves SONAR data, tractors in new for-hire fleets slipped to 19,520 in August, roughly 14% below the first-half average. Meanwhile, the Truckload Rejection Index sits near 14%, about triple its 2023 to 2025 range. In the last cycle, new-fleet tractors began climbing within a couple of quarters of the 2020 rejection spike and peaked near 47,000 in 2022. This time they’ve moved the opposite way.
Tight because trucks left, not because freight surged
Over three years, truckload volume is up only 9%, while rejections are up 268%. Carriers are turning down far more loads on about the same freight. Total for-hire tractors fell by roughly 51,000 in August alone, and ATRI also describes this year’s rate gains as supply-driven.
The authority illusion
Operating authorities are climbing, with net additions topping 2,000 a week in late summer, but an authority is permission to haul, not a truck. Much of the jump stems from FMCSA’s Motus rollout, which paused deactivations and cleared application backlogs. Estimated new grants actually ran about 17% below the first quarter. Only around two in three new registrants now buy liability insurance, versus more than nine in ten in 2019.
What’s holding capacity back
Three pressures are raising the cost of entry. First, the pool of compliant drivers is shrinking, from Clearinghouse prohibitions and the non-domiciled CDL rule to English proficiency enforcement. Second, liability and cargo insurance rose to about 10.6 cents a mile in 2025 and kept climbing. Third, margins were barely positive, making expansion hard to justify. Even large carriers like Schneider, Knight-Swift and Werner cited driver availability as a constraint.
What to expect
Expect a tight market through early 2027. The quickest relief would come from the roughly 10% of trucks parked without drivers, but only if carriers can find compliant drivers. Signs of a real turn include new-fleet tractors rising for two or more months, rejections falling while volume holds, and first-time insurance filings picking up.
Bottom line
Shippers should plan for elevated rates and keep backup carriers lined up. Look at tractor counts and insurance filings rather than authority totals.
Read the article: Trucking Capacity Squeezed as For-Hire Tractor Counts Decline
Fleet Safety Tech Adopting AI Alerts to Reduce Critical Road Events
Telematics provider Isaac Instruments is betting that giving drivers a chance to self-correct will cut down the safety footage fleets have to review.
Warn first, record later
At its Horizon user conference in early October, Isaac announced AI-powered in-cab alerts that flag risks like tailgating, speeding, and, for fleets with inward-facing cameras, phone use. Instead of instantly saving a video and sending it to a manager, the system first gives the driver a visual and audible warning. If the driver corrects the behavior quickly enough, no video is created. Fleets can set how long that grace period lasts. Co-founder J.S. Bouchard summed it up as monitoring more while managing less, and noted that drivers tend to correct themselves because they want a good score.
Fewer videos to review
Isaac expects fleets using the alerts to see about 60 critical-event videos per 100,000 miles, versus roughly 330 for fleets using AI detection without in-cab warnings. That works out to about one video per driver per week. These are the company’s projections, not independent results. Isaac also added Power Backup, which keeps the camera system running long enough to upload footage after a severe crash.
Why safety is under the microscope
Isaac points to escalating nuclear verdicts against carriers. It also cites the Supreme Court’s Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II decision, which removed a defense for brokers in state negligent hiring cases. Bouchard expects shippers and brokers to demand stricter safety standards from the carriers they use.
Tackling fuel costs
With diesel at historic highs, Isaac launched an Isaac Fuel Module that uses AI to detect what actually goes into a truck’s tank and compares it with purchase records to spot possible theft. The company also had Mesilla Valley Transportation Solutions test its existing Fuel Coach program, which gives drivers real-time color-coded feedback. Raising a driver’s score from 75 to 95 improved fuel economy by 12.8% in a Freightliner with a Detroit engine and more than 9% in an International with a Cummins engine.
Bottom line
For fleets, the pitch is less video review, more driver accountability, and tighter fuel controls.
Read the article: Fleet Safety Tech Adopting AI Alerts to Reduce Critical Road Events
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